NOTICE: By downloading research reports you accept the limitations set out in the disclaimer and meet one or more of the definition criteria for qualified investors. 

Valuation Reports

Newron Valuation Report
“Down, but not out!”
Evenamide targets a blockbuster market opportunity

Newron has prioritized evenamide with blockbuster sales potential in schizophrenia and CTRS after sarizotan was discontinued in Rett syndrome when the pivotal “STARS” trial did not meet its endpoints in May. The two pivotal evenamide trials are on track to start in Q2 2021 with the success rate jumping to 50% (potentially pivotal) from currently 15% (POC). Sufficient funding has been secured. Newron is trading well below the value of Xadago approved in Parkinson’s disease with (low) royalties and milestone revenues. Substantial value will be unlocked with the approval and launch of evenamide in schizophrenia and CTRS, and Xadago in PD-LID.

Key catalysts include:
1. Results evenamide FDA explanatory “Study 008” (Q1 2020)
2. Start new label trial Xadago in PD-LID (H1 2020)
3. Start potentially pivotal program of evenamide in schizophrenia/CTRS (Q2 2020)
vL Newron Valuation Report 21SEP20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.4 MB
Polyphor Valuation Report
"Ride the balixafortide"
New leadership delivering on renewed strategy

Polyphor is delivering on its renewed strategy with a prime focus on phase III drug balixafortide in breast cancer. The Fosun Pharma licensing agreement for balixafortide in China was a major surprise, almost two years ahead of our expectations with excellent terms. Next to first product validation by an external partner, the upfront payment cuts our expected funding need by roughly a third to reach profitability, leading to significantly less dilution to raise the remaining capital in the financial markets. Cash life is now extended well into Q3 2021 and is sufficient to reach the first major value inflection point (ORR results), which should lead to a substantial revaluation.

Key catalysts include:
1. Start inhaled murepavadin phase I trial (Q4 2020)
2. Balixafortide pivotal phase III “FORTRESS” ORR results (Q2 2021)
3. Balixafortide pivotal phase III “FORTRESS” PFS results (Q4 2021)
vL Polyphor Valuation Report 15SEP20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.5 MB
Basilea Valuation Report
"Growing the base"
Debt restructured, cancer pipeline rapidly progressing

Basilea reported solid H1 2020 results boosted by continued strong underlying Cresemba sales growth and effective expense management. Business was largely unaffected by Covid-19. Roughly 25% of its debt was extended from 2022 to 2027 by the combined placement of a new convertible bond (maturity 2027) and the partial repurchase of the existing convertible bond (maturity 2022) with sufficient cash to reach profitability expected in 2022. The cancer pipeline is rapidly progressing with lisavanbulin moving into phase II in brain cancer in the next few months (now included in our forecasts) and results of the registrational trial of derazantinib in iCCA expected around year-end.

Key catalysts include:
1. Start phase II trial lisavanbulin in brain cancer (H2 2020)
2. Interim results “FIDES-02” trial in urothelial cancer (H2 2020)
3. Results registrational derazantinib “FIDES-01” trial in iCCA (year-end 2020)
vL Basilea Valuation Report 9SEP20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.9 MB
Cassiopea Valuation Report
"On spot for US launch"
Winlevi first truly new acne drug approved in nearly 40 years!

The US approval of Winlevi is a key catalyst, which will be transformational for Cassiopea and marks the first new mode of action for acne in almost 40 years. Ideally, Cassiopea would like to merge with or acquire a specialist dermatology company with an established US sales force and product offering to maximize the long-term value of Winlevi and its pipeline. The US launch starts with a market access launch in September to secure pricing, reimbursement and formulary listing with major healthcare providers, followed by a commercial launch in March 2021. We conservatively forecast global peak sales of CHF 400+ mn for Winlevi with the US accounting for ~75% of sales.

Key catalysts include:
1. M&A transaction US derma player or capital increase (H2 2020)
2. Start phase III trials Breezula in male alopecia (H1 2021)
3. Phase II results Breezula in female alopecia (mid 2021)
Cassiopea Valuation Report 7SEP20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.7 MB
Cosmo Valuation Report
"Partners x Products = Profits"
Clear road to profitability established

In 2019, Cosmo eliminated its US sales infrastructure Aries Pharma resulting in a significant reduction of operating expenses while returning to its original business-to-business model. A global sales infrastructure has been established for almost all of its major products (except MethyleneBlue, which is awaiting EU approval) through strategic partnerships with equity stakes where possible. On US Byfavo approval, Cosmo expects to return to profitability in 2020 and benefit from the long-term value creation by its partners through its equity stakes.

Key catalysts include:

1. MethyleneBlue EU approval (Q2 2020)
2. Byfavo US approval (5 July 2020)
3. Aemcolo phase IIb results in IBS-D (Q4 2020)
Cosmo Valuation Report 18MAY20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 2.1 MB
Santhera Valuation Report
“All-in on DMD”
2020 a transformational year, short-term funds needed

UPDATE 2019 net revenues were slightly above guidance with a markedly improved operating loss thanks to the upfront payment from Chiesi. Key DMD pipeline products remain on track to reach critical value inflection points in 2020 including conditional EU approval of Puldysa (80% filing success rate) and pivotal “VISION-DMD” trial results of vamorolone (35% phase IIb success rate). Both will be transformational for Santhera with the potential of a substantial re-rating. With cash reach until early Q3 2020, Santhera needs additional funds to finance its growth plans.

Key catalysts include:
1. CHMP opinion conditional EU approval Puldysa in DMD (mid 2020)
2. Vamorolone “VISION-DMD” pivotal trial results in DMD (Q4 2020)
3. Puldysa EU launch in DMD (Q4 2020)
vL Santhera Valuation Report 2APR20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 2.2 MB
Addex Valuation Report
“Back to the future - fast forward”
USD 339 mn Indivior deal highlights pipeline potential

The USD 339 mn strategic agreement with Indivior to accelerate development of ADX71441 in addiction highlights the underlying value of Addex’ allosteric modulator pipeline and extends it cash runway into 2021. The company plans to raise sufficient funds in 2018 to finance pivotal development of dipraglurant in PD-LID and dystonia, both with blockbuster peak sales potential. Successful funding is the last step in Addex' development strategy to unlock the value of its key pipeline projects.

Key catalysts include:
1) Start phase IIa POC trial of dipraglurant ER in dystonia (H2 2018)
2) Start phase I trial of ADX71441 in addiction (H2 2018)
3) Start 1st pivotal phase III trial of dipraglurant IR in PD-LID (H2 2018)
vL Addex Valuation Report 8JAN18.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.3 MB
Kuros Valuation Report
"Fit for Growth"
KUR-023, the first product to reach the market in 2017

Kuros’ key projects target sizable market opportunities in surgical sealants with KUR-023 (dural membrane sealant); and orthobiologics with KUR-111 (bone graft substitute) and KUR-113 (bone fracture healing), with combined peak sales of more than CHF 1.5 bn. With cash of CHF 18 mn (June 30, 2016), the company has sufficient funds to launch KUR-023 in the EU in 2017, and prepare KUR-111 and KUR-113 for phase III development. Additional financing will be needed to bring KUR-111 and KUR-113 successfully to market. Legacy Cytos collaborations (not in our forecasts) provide significant upside potential without any further funding requirements.

Key catalysts include:
1. Filing CE marking dural membrane sealant KUR-023 (~end 2016)
2. Start US PMA clinical trial KUR-023 in spine patients (2017)
3. EU approval, partnering agreement, and launch of KUR-023 (2017)
vL Kuros Valuation Report 27JUN16.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.3 MB