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Valuation Reports

Newron Valuation Report
“Down, but not out!”
Schizophrenia and PD-LID trials start Q1 2022

After digesting the setback of sarizotan in Rett syndrome last year, Newron is now close to start the two pivotal evenamide trials in schizophrenia and the Xadago pivotal trial in PD-LID in Q1 2022, unlocking substantial equity upside. Sufficient funding has been secured with potential partnering revenues adding to the cash position following positive “Study 008A” results by end 2021. Newron is trading well below the value of its approved drug Xadago in Parkinson’s disease with (low) royalties and milestone revenues with no value contributed to its promising pipeline targeting blockbuster sales potential.

Key catalysts include:
1. Results evenamide FDA explanatory safety “Study 008A” (end 2021)
2. Start potentially pivotal program of evenamide in schizophrenia/CTRS (Q1 2022)
3. Start new label trial Xadago in PD-LID (Q1 2022)
vL Newron Valuation Report 5MAY21.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.4 MB
Basilea Valuation Report
"Growing the base"
Cresemba shines, cancer pipeline rapidly emerging

Basilea reported in-line FY 2020 results boosted by continued strong Cresemba sales growth and a one-time gain from the sale of the corporate HQ. Business was largely unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The emerging cancer pipeline is rapidly progressing with five clinical trials ongoing for derazantinib and lisavanbulin with many data readouts ahead. Basilea replenished its cash position by raising CHF 45.8 mn gross proceeds in a private placement.

Key catalysts include:
1. Interim results “FIDES-02” trial derazantinib in urothelial cancer (H1 2021)
2. Topline results registrational trial Cresemba in Japan (H2 2021)
3. Complete enrollment phase III “ERADICATE” trial Zevtera in bacteremia (H2 2021)
vL Basilea Valuation Report 21APR21.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 2.0 MB
Relief Therapeutics Valuation Report
“What a Relief!”
Positive "COVID-AIV" results may trigger EUA

US partner NeuroRx announced positive 60-day topline results of the pivotal “COVID-AIV” trial of RLF-100 IV in critical COVID-19 patients with respiratory failure. The trial met its primary endpoint for successful recovery from respiratory failure and also demonstrated a meaningful benefit in survival. NeuroRx will apply immediately for US Emergency Use Authorization and if granted will mark first commercial sales for RLF-100. The global agreement with Acer Therapeutics for ACER-001 was closed, effectively adding an additional late stage, high margin project to Relief’s pipeline. Funding has been secured through its largest shareholder GEM.

Key catalysts include:
1. Potential US Emergency Use Authorization RLF-100 IV in COVID-19 ARDS (Q2 2021)
2. Potential EU Conditional Marketing Authorization RLF-100 IV in COVID-19 ARDS (mid-2021)
3. “AVICOVID-2” topline results RLF-100 INHALED in COVID-19 NALI (Q4 2021)
vL Relief Therapeutics Valuation Report
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.6 MB
Polyphor Valuation Report
"Ride the balixafortide"
"FORTRESS" on track, new pipeline projects emerge

The critical phase III “FORTRESS” trial of balixafortide in metastatic breast cancer achieved complete patient enrollment, received a third positive DSMB recommendation and remains on track to report results in 2021 despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Up to CHF 24 mn grants were awarded from CARB-X and Cystic Fibrosis Foundation to support development of Polyphor’s new antibiotic programs and inhaled murepavadin. The company announced a new CXCR4 lead compound for blood cancers and a “wild card” indication for balixafortide for COVID-19. Cash life well into Q3 2021 is sufficient to reach the next major value inflection point of “FORTRESS” ORR results expected in June 2021.

Key catalysts include:
1. Balixafortide pivotal phase III “FORTRESS” ORR results (Q2 2021)
2. New CXCR4 lead candidate (Q2 2021)
3. Balixafortide pivotal phase III “FORTRESS” PFS results (Q4 2021)
vL Polyphor Valuation Report 29MAR21.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.5 MB
Santhera Valuation Report
Despite Puldysa setback DMD pipeline still on steroids

Despite the Puldysa late stage setback in DMD early October, we believe Santhera provides ample equity upside. Positive results of the pivotal “VISION-DMD” trial of vamorolone in DMD, expected in Q2 2021, will be transformational for Santhera with a sharp re-rating. We forecast peak sales of CHF 550+ mn in DMD alone with a 50% success rate. Santhera can now monetize non-DMD indications to replenish its current cash position that reaches up to Q2 2021. Upon positive “VISION-DMD” trial results, capital can be raised at a considerably lower share dilution we currently assume.

Key catalysts include:
1. Lonodelestat MAD trial results (Q1 2021)
2. Vamorolone pivotal “VISION-DMD” trial results in DMD (Q2 2021)
3. Vamorolone US DMD filing (Q4 2021)
vL Santhera Valuation Report 23NOV20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.1 MB
Cassiopea Valuation Report
"On spot for US launch"
Winlevi first truly new acne drug approved in nearly 40 years!

The US approval of Winlevi is a key catalyst, which will be transformational for Cassiopea and marks the first new mode of action for acne in almost 40 years. Ideally, Cassiopea would like to merge with or acquire a specialist dermatology company with an established US sales force and product offering to maximize the long-term value of Winlevi and its pipeline. The US launch starts with a market access launch in September to secure pricing, reimbursement and formulary listing with major healthcare providers, followed by a commercial launch in March 2021. We conservatively forecast global peak sales of CHF 400+ mn for Winlevi with the US accounting for ~75% of sales.

Key catalysts include:
1. M&A transaction US derma player or capital increase (H2 2020)
2. Start phase III trials Breezula in male alopecia (H1 2021)
3. Phase II results Breezula in female alopecia (mid 2021)
Cassiopea Valuation Report 7SEP20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.7 MB
Cosmo Valuation Report
"Partners x Products = Profits"
Clear road to profitability established

In 2019, Cosmo eliminated its US sales infrastructure Aries Pharma resulting in a significant reduction of operating expenses while returning to its original business-to-business model. A global sales infrastructure has been established for almost all of its major products (except MethyleneBlue, which is awaiting EU approval) through strategic partnerships with equity stakes where possible. On US Byfavo approval, Cosmo expects to return to profitability in 2020 and benefit from the long-term value creation by its partners through its equity stakes.

Key catalysts include:

1. MethyleneBlue EU approval (Q2 2020)
2. Byfavo US approval (5 July 2020)
3. Aemcolo phase IIb results in IBS-D (Q4 2020)
Cosmo Valuation Report 18MAY20.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 2.1 MB
Addex Valuation Report
“Back to the future - fast forward”
USD 339 mn Indivior deal highlights pipeline potential

The USD 339 mn strategic agreement with Indivior to accelerate development of ADX71441 in addiction highlights the underlying value of Addex’ allosteric modulator pipeline and extends it cash runway into 2021. The company plans to raise sufficient funds in 2018 to finance pivotal development of dipraglurant in PD-LID and dystonia, both with blockbuster peak sales potential. Successful funding is the last step in Addex' development strategy to unlock the value of its key pipeline projects.

Key catalysts include:
1) Start phase IIa POC trial of dipraglurant ER in dystonia (H2 2018)
2) Start phase I trial of ADX71441 in addiction (H2 2018)
3) Start 1st pivotal phase III trial of dipraglurant IR in PD-LID (H2 2018)
vL Addex Valuation Report 8JAN18.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.3 MB
Kuros Valuation Report
"Fit for Growth"
KUR-023, the first product to reach the market in 2017

Kuros’ key projects target sizable market opportunities in surgical sealants with KUR-023 (dural membrane sealant); and orthobiologics with KUR-111 (bone graft substitute) and KUR-113 (bone fracture healing), with combined peak sales of more than CHF 1.5 bn. With cash of CHF 18 mn (June 30, 2016), the company has sufficient funds to launch KUR-023 in the EU in 2017, and prepare KUR-111 and KUR-113 for phase III development. Additional financing will be needed to bring KUR-111 and KUR-113 successfully to market. Legacy Cytos collaborations (not in our forecasts) provide significant upside potential without any further funding requirements.

Key catalysts include:
1. Filing CE marking dural membrane sealant KUR-023 (~end 2016)
2. Start US PMA clinical trial KUR-023 in spine patients (2017)
3. EU approval, partnering agreement, and launch of KUR-023 (2017)
vL Kuros Valuation Report 27JUN16.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 1.3 MB
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